Runoff Flow Chartage

Fellow E-11ers:

Well here we are right on the cusp of May, the annual runoff month for
Western Montana. As recently as this past weekend, snow has been
accumulating in the Montana mountains that surround our E-11 fishing
grounds. As our Montana Matters Troubadour Shane Clouse said in email reply
to my "let it snow, let it snow, let it snow" email to him over the weekend,
"Quit swearing at me!"

For the past four years we have developed our own flow chart to give you a
visual opportunity to better see "where we are and where we need to be" for
our best fishing opportunities for E-11. I recommend that you print this
chart out in color and keep it handy as we will be using that as our guide
for the next several weeks (after which time we will leave the guiding to
our expert Double Up Outfitters).

The attached chart tells the tale of the last four years and of four very
different runoffs:

(a) in 2007 (the blue line), we had a record low snow pack which resulted in
low water with high temperatures so much so that, during our last group, we
were getting up early to on the water by 7:00 a.m. and off just after noon;

(b) by contrast, in 2008 (the yellow line), we had record high snowpack
which, when combined with heavy and extended May rains, saw the local rivers
flowing at such a high (and treacherous) rate that our first two groups
trekked over the Continental Divide to fish (with great success, btw) the
Missouri River;

(c) our best/ideal year out of the last several was 2009 (the black line)
where we had an average snowpack with nice warm temperatures during May,
such that the runoff surged in mid to late May and then nicely dropped to
very fishable levels by Group One's arrival; and

(d) last year, 2010 (the green line), saw snowpacks at this time at around
55% of twenty year average (leading to some early fears of a repeat of 2007)
only to see May and June being two of the wettest months in recorded history
resulting in unexpectedly high water with huge browns and rainbows gracing
our early fishing lines.

What is the forecast for this year, you ask??

Well, the Bitterroot Basin snowpack is currently 198% of 2010's snowpack,
but right at 103% of twenty year averages. What we all now will be watching
is the weather conditions in May. What we want to see happen is (a) the
snow now to stop (thereby ingratiating ourselves to Shane); (b) temperatures
to begin to slowly but surely rise; (c) water flows to track 2009 (the black
line) and, buy the time of Group One's June 18th arrival flows (as measured
on our home Rock Creek in the attached chart) to be between 1500 and 2000
"cubic feet per second" ("cfs"). [By way of comparison, pre-runoff Rock
Creek today is currently flowing at 220 cfs.]

As the runoff begins (y)our chart will be updated and posted on Der Blog
which should now be safely nestled in your computer's "Favorites" for ease
of future reference.

May the flow be with you!!

Rock Creek Ron
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